August 01, 2016
Jawa Report Officially Endorses Donald Trump
Someone is attempting to make Trump President by pointing out that Melania was once in a hot artsy sexy good gay photograph.
Um, so that does it, this Trump guy makes Bill Clinton look like an amateur. He picks this.
He picks this girl.
Who keeps and turns in his DNA.
So who's the better picker here? We're all in for Trump now.
July 29, 2016
Here's Hillary in Her Sopwith Camel
Up! Up! And away!
Aaawwwww! Too bad.
Ohhhhhh. I was afraid of that.
BRILLIANT! Democratic delegates vandalizing 'Hillary' signs to read 'LIAR'https://t.co/eJh1dUHVFa— Ben Owen, HRK (@hrkbenowen) July 29, 2016
Bill Clinton takes a nap during Hillary's speech:https://t.co/0oS7nxamuD— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) July 29, 2016
The chatter on NPR this AM was that the ratings for her speech were bad. Anyway I think that's true. As I myself just got around to it.
I'm pretty sure she sucks anyway. She's just not that good.
Remember I told you out with a fizzle.... and balloons, did I not?
Update: So its not a Camel its a tri-plane, I'm going to go ahead and stick with Camel because Snoopy.
July 26, 2016
Commie! Commie! Commie!
Bernie's speech at the DNC.
It seems the Commie is popular.
June 08, 2016
Results CA MT NJ NM SD(Trump vs Clinton in Nov)
Sorry I'm a bit late to the party, I was under the weather yesterday. So I took some Zs.
OK here we go.
California: Trump 75.4% with 61% reporting.
Dems: Clinton 56.0% with 69% reporting.
Montana: Trump 73.7% with 94% reporting.
Dems: Sanders 51.0% with 95% reporting.
New Jersey: Trump 80.6% with 92% reporting.
Dems: Clinton 63.3% with 98% reporting.
New Mexico: Trump 70.7% with 77% reporting.
Dems: Clinton 51.5% with 98% reporting
South Dakota: Trump 67.1% with 99% reporting.
Dems: Clinton 51.0%
Trump now the presumptive nominee by pledged delegates he has 1415 bound delegates with 1237 needed to win. Overall Trump has 1541 delegates.
Donald Trump is the nominee on the first ballot.
Clinton still does not have enough bound delegates to win she has 2168 of 2383. Of course unbound Super Delegates give her the nomination on the first ballot.
However the last minute push by Sanders did not happen. He needed to win all yesterday's primaries by large margins to pull away her super delegates.
Clinton is the nominee with 2740 total and 2383 needed to win. So barring divine intervention the contest is now Trump vs Clinton.
DC still votes next Tuesday.
May 26, 2016
Primary Results WA
Sorry I didn't get to this before.
Washington: Trump 75.8% with 79% reporting
Dems: Sanders 72.7%
Updated delegate counts.
Trump 1229 (needs 8)
Dems: Clinton 2304 (needs 79)
Reports of Trumps clinching the nomination are a bit premature, though its hard to see any scenario where he doesn't clinch it on June 7. Moving easily over the threshold even excluding unbound delegates.
Update: Yes I know Cruz, Kasich and Rubio have dropped out, but they still carry their delegates to the convention. So I included the top four as Rubio is ahead of Kasich.
May 17, 2016
Primary Results OR KY
You all are lucky I had to go to KMOX to get my Blues fix. Something about CBC saying I'm not Canadian.
Oregon: Trump 66.9% with 79% reporting
Dems: Sanders 54.5% with 77% reporting.
Kentucky Dems: Clinton wins somehow picking up .5% on 3% of the vote. I smell a rat.
Clinton wins 46.7% with 99% reporting.
Turns out the smell was just Louisville.
Updated delegate counts.
Trump 1175 (needs +62 to be nominee).
Dems: Clinton 2294 (needs +89 to be nominee).
May 10, 2016
Primary Results WV NE
They say it don't matter. But Jawas always count all the votes.
West Virginia: Trump wins 76.9% with 98% reporting.
Dems: Sanders 51.4% with 94% reporting.
Nebraska: Trump 61.4% with 95% reporting.
Dems Caucus: Sanders at 57.1% (14 delegates)
Clinton 42.9% (10 delegates)
Updated delegate counts as of 05/11/16 7:43 cdt.
Dems: Clinton 2235.
May 03, 2016
Indiana Primary Results (Trump Wins) (Cruz Drops Out)
Here we go. Polls are about to close but some returns are in, absentees I guess.
Trump: Wins. 53.2% with 85% reporting.
Dems: Sanders wins 53.1% with 76% reporting.
Indiana is also split on time zones and some places don't do daylight time. I never know WTF time it is there. So expect southwestern Indiana to come in a bit later than North and East.
Update: Boston Globe says last polls close at 6:00 CDT.
Update: Ted Cruz says he will end his campaign for President.
Updated delegate counts:
Dems: Clinton 2215.
And the Trump victory speech.
No wait, my bad. This is the Trump victory speech.
April 26, 2016
Primary Results: CT DE MD PA RI
Connecticut: Trump wins, 57.5% with 90% reporting. (28 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 51.7% (27 delegates)
Sanders 46.5% (26 delegates)
Delaware: Trump wins, 60.8% with 99% reporting. (16 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 59.8% (12 delegates)
Sanders 39.2% (9 delegates)
Maryland: Trump 54.4% with 87% reporting. (38 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 63.0% (59 delegates)
Sanders 33.3% (34 delegates)
Pennsylvania: Trump 56.7% with 99% reporting. (51 delegates)
Cruz 21.6% (2 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 55.6% (105 delegates)
Sanders 43.6% (78 delegates)
Rhode Island: Trump wins, 63.8% with 99% reporting. (9 delegates)
Kasich: 24.4% (5 delegates)
Cruz 10.4% (3 delegates)
Dems: Sanders 55.0% (13 delegates)
Clinton 43.3% (11 delegates)
Updated delegate count as of 04/27/16 7:45 am CDT.
Dems: Clinton 2168.
All data from CNN and NYT's feeds.
April 19, 2016
Results! NY WY
Sorry I didn't get to Wyoming earlier.
Cruz 9 delegates.
Dems: Sanders wins 55.7 (7 delegates)
Clinton 44.3 (Also inexplicably gets 7 delegates)
There are four uncommitted super delegates remaining in WY.
NY: Trump 60.5% will win with 98% reporting. (89 delegates)
Kasich 25.1% (3 delegates)
3 delegates outstanding.
Dems: Clinton will win 60.5% 38% reporting.
I'm calling it a night kids, I'll update delegate counts in the AM.
Updated delegate count. 04/20/16 537 am CDT.
April 05, 2016
Wisconsin Primary Results
Status: Polls closed. No results.
Cruz wins at 48.3% with 99% reporting. (36 delegates)
Trump 32.0% (3 delegates)
Dems: Sanders 53.4% with 25% reporting.
Updated delegate counts.
March 29, 2016
Weekend With Bernie
Feel the Bern! Bernie hands Hillary her ass over the weekend.
Alaska: Sanders 81.6% with 100% reporting.
Hawaii: Sanders 69.8% with 100% reporting.
Delegate counts as of today:.
Wow he stomped her.
Anyway it seems to me that Clinton shows weakness in the west, as does Trump.
March 22, 2016
Primary Results American Samoa Arizona Utah
Here we go primary results, remember there is an election going on.
American Samoa: Voting.
Arizona: AZ: Trump wins 47.1% with 75% reporting. (58 delegates)
Other 18.2% LOL
Dems: Clinton 57.8% with 78% reporting.
Utah: Cruz wins 69.2% with 85% reporting. (40 delegates)
Dems: Sanders wins 79.7% with 82% reporting.
(Same reports of long lines, also Dems vote in Idaho, same same)
Idaho Dems: Sanders wins at 78% with 100% reporting.
Updated delegate counts as of 03/23 07:00 cdt.
Dems: Clinton 1711.
March 16, 2016
Results NMI Florida Illinois Missouri North Carolina Ohio (Trump Wins Fla NC IL MO Kasich Wins OH)
Here we go again. I voted this AM. So get out there no matter who your candidate is and vote. Because if you don't vote, you have no right to bitch.
Northern Mariana Islands : Trump 72.8% 100% reporting. (9 delegates WTA)
Dems: Clinton 54% (4 delegates)
Sanders 34.4% (2 delegates)
Ohio: Kasich wins 46.1% with 85% reporting. (66 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 56.5%
North Carolina: Trump wins 40.5% with 80% reporting.
Dems: Clinton 54.6%
Missouri: Trump wins 41.2% 99.9% reporting.
Dems Clinton 49.6%
Illinois: Trump wins 39.4% with 68% reporting.
Dems Clinton 50.5%
Florida: Trump wins. 45.7% 93% reporting. (99 delegates)
Dems: Clinton 64.5%
Updated delegate counts as of this morning, 03/17/16.
Dems: Clinton 1588.
March 12, 2016
Virgin Islands, Wyoming, Guam, DC Results
Virgin Islands voted Thursday, somehow it came out with 6 un-pledged delegates.
Wyoming: Cruz wins. 66.3% with 100% reporting. (9 delegates)
Rubio 19.5% (1 delegate)
Trump 7.2% (1 delegate)
DC: Rubio wins 37.3% 100% reporting (10 delegates)
Kasich 35.5% (9 delegates)
Guam: Cruz I hear wins one delegate the rest are uncommitted,
March 10, 2016
Debate Fevah IV
I hear there will be metal chairs inside the cage tonight? Is that even true? I hope so.
Anyway the Right side is totally at a lather crazy on all sides. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy than this election.
Besides Mos Eisley Cantina of course, I heard Trump bought that? Anyway I foreseen that it will be something like this.
Predection: John Kasich ends it with a lightsaber.
March 08, 2016
Primary Results Hawaii Idaho Michigan Mississippi
Here we go again, we'll post results as soon as they are available.
Let get er done, so we can heal ourselves and get target fixation on the Dems.
I've tried to be as neutral as I can be in this thing, but then the GOP and the SuperPacs ruined my Tee Vee this week. I might just have to take revenge by doing the opposite.
Shame really, that's good money that could be used against Hillary.
Update: Polls I think close in 1:30 minutes, I bumped this post up.
Mississippi: Trump wins 47.3% 95% reporting.
Michigan: Trump wins 36.5% 97% reporting.
Idaho: Cruz wins 45.4% with 96% reporting.
Hawaii: Trump wins 42.4% with 100% reporting.
Update: MS is called for Clinton 0% reporting. 9 minutes after polls close. LOL.
Sanders will beat Clinton in Michigan, now 51.0% with 84% reporting.
Update 03/09/16: Updated delegate counts.
March 07, 2016
Rubio Wins Puerto Rico
Robio: 73.8% (Takes all 23 delegates)
March 05, 2016
Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine (Update: Results)
(Cruz Wins KS ME)
(Trump Wins LA KY)
Returns tonight... 155 delegates at stake.
Kansas: Cruz wins at 48.2% with 100% reporting. (24 delegates)
Trump 23.3% (9 delegates)
Rubio 16.7% (6 delegates)
Kasich 10.7% (1 delegate)
Maine: Cruz wins leading at 45.8% with 100% reporting. (12 delegates)
Trump 32.5% (9 delegates)
Kasich: 12.2% (2 delegates)
Kentucky: Trump projected to win, leading 35.9% 99% reporting. (16 delegates)
Cruz 31.6% (14 delegates)
Rubio 16.4% (7delegates)
Kasich 14.4% (6 delegates)
Louisiana: Trump wina, leads 41.6% with 90% reporting. (14 delegates)
Cruz 38.0% (13 delegates)
Cruz wins delegate count for tonight.
Trump now leading by 88 delegates at 385.
On the Dem side Sanders wins 2/3.
Kansas: Sanders 67.7% (23 delegates)
Clinton 32.3% (10 delegates) (of 40 17 remaining)
Louisiana: Clinton 71.1% (29 delegates)(8 remaining/4 super)
Sanders 23.2% (8 Delegates)
Nebraska: Sanders 56.6% (14 delegates)
Clinton 43.4% (10 delegates) (1 remaining/ 5 super)
Clinton now leads 1131.
Updated delegate count as of 03/06: 13:00ish.
March 03, 2016
Debate Fevah III
Ok so like this is going to be like a cage match.
I hope there are some good insults, don't you? There are already 14k bloodthirstys online.
March 01, 2016
At Last! Super Tuesday! (Bumped Updated)
(Cruz Wins TX OK AK)
(Trump Wins AL GA MA TN VA AR VM)
(Rubio Wins MN)
Ya'll be nice to each other at the polls now... we'll have results and great gnashing pains of defeat later tonight.
Update: Polls have closed in Virginia, Vermont, Georgia. Stand by...
Georgia: Trump Wins 38.9% 91% reporting.
Virginia: Trump wins 34.7% with 99% reporting.
Vermont: Trump wins 32.7% 92% reporting
Trump is called to win four more states as polls closed in Mass, Tenn, Alabama. But I can't do that till we have counted at least some.
Massachusetts: Trump wins at 48.8% 97% reporting.
Tennessee: Trump wins at 39.0% 100% reporting.
Alabama: Trump projected to win at 43.8% 100% reporting.
Polls closed in Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Oklahoma: Cruz wins OK with 34.6% 100% reporting.
Arkansas: Trump wins at 33.1% 100% reporting.
Polls are closed in Minnesota and Texas.
Minnesota: Rubio wins at 36.8% 100% reporting.
Texas: Cruz wins at 43.2% 100% reporting.
Interesting Texas side note the Texas counties that Trump won, many are on the Mexican border.
Alaska: Cruz wins at 36.4%
Update: Well, enough for me, we'll check on Alaska, delegate counts and the Dems in the morning. So far Sanders has won a few states and is running well in a couple more. Still Clinton is up by 600 delegates at the moment.
Trump leads in delegates 315.
The entire field hold 148 if they pooled behind one candidate. Not enough to deny Trump the nomination at this point.
Update 03/02: As of this AM the field leads Trump in total delegates 349 to 315.
Clinton leads Sanders 1055 to 418.
Updated delegate count: Trump 332.
February 20, 2016
PTL! South Carolina & Nevada Democrat Caucus Results
I'm tired of the election, too bad for me huh?
Hillary Clinton has taken the Nevada caucus. 52% to Sanders 47%.
She will walk away with 23 delegates to Sanders 13. She currently leads in the delegate count 496 to 69.
Update: Trump rolls 32.5%.
Cruz at 22.3% loses to Rubio at 22.5% or around 1000 votes.
Followed by Bush 7.9%,
and Carson 7.2.
Update: Jeb drops out.
November 05, 2014
Thanks to All My Eses for Winning this One for the GOP
My plan, it worked. Thanks esés. Also, my homies.
November 04, 2014
The Home Depot Esse Option
So, captain*arizona claimed in the comments on that post I wrote about not being able to vote this year that the only illegals voting are the ones Rethuglicans pay to vote illegally to show that illegals can vote. And then to make matters worse, those illegal alien voters are then prosecuted by those same Rethuglicans who paid them to vote.
Which is kind of funny given the recent that study showed quite the opposite: when asked, 6.4 percent of non-citizen immigrants admitted to illegally casting a ballot in an election.
None of whom, to the best of my knowledge, admitted to doing so at the behest of an evil Republican conspiracy to pay them to vote and then to prosecute them for illegally voting.
But it does give me an idea. Maybe the best solution to my inability to vote this year is the most obvious one: pay an illegal to vote in my place!
It's win-win if you think about it. They need money, I need to cast a ballot. They don't have money now and I can't cast a ballot now. So, I pay them and they have money and I have voted by proxy!
Sure, none of this is legal. But legality is so hard to define these days. Don't think of it as illegal voting, think of it as undocumented voting.
Isn't postmodernism awesome? You simply redefine the meaning of everything you have a problem with and the suddenly *poof* like magic, all problems go away!
So, I'm off to the Home Depot. And if the price is right why, heck, I might be able to vote more than once! Don't think of it as voter fraud. Think of it as voter entrepreneurship!
Oh, and how do you say undocumented voting work in Spanish?
November 03, 2014
Can Some Poor Loser Vote in My Place?
Hello all, it's me again, Rusty Shackleford. I blog here sometimes.
The reason I stopped blogging was that I was in the middle of a big career change and move. Many of the more devoted and long time readers know that from time to time I would post about my job that I kind of was having issues with.
The good news is that after years of trying I found a job elsewhere. The bad news is that when you're my age with the number of kids I have of the age they are that moving is not quite as easy as it was when I was younger with smaller kids. When kids get bigger they get more stuff. The other thing I didn't think through is that with each successively larger home I've been in we've successfully filled up each new square foot with more stuff.
In any event the move took a lot more time and energy than I had planned. But here I am, in my new dream home at my new dream job. You can all virtually pat me on the back now while I virtually drop to one knee, do that thing where you tap two fingers to your heart, then your lips, and then point upward in recognition of Allah's blessings.
But I find that the timing of the move was such that it's too late to vote absentee in my old state and also to late to register to vote in my new state.
And I find myself having this odd feeling. I think it might be guilt.
I say I think here because I have had nothing to feel guilty about since that my mom caught me watching scrambled porn on TV. And that might not have even been guilt, but shame. And it might not have been me, but some other guy in a movie I once saw. My memory does that sometimes.
Also, I'm like Mary Poppins inasmuch as I'm practically perfect in nearly every way. At least the coblogs around here think so. They keep calling me Mary which I'm pretty sure is in deference to my saint-like behavior.
Vinnie must really think highly of me since he uses the term nearly every day.
In any event, I feel guilty about not voting. I know, it's weird, but I'm a weird guy.
But I'm also a weird guy who believes that the most important attribute of any action is not in the intent nor in the process of the doing of that action but in the result. So while it disturbs me a bit to know that I didn't go through the action of voting myself it disturbs me more to know that my ballot hasn't (nor will be) been cast.
I'm thinking I might feel better if someone out there who isn't planning on voting voted in my place. Come on, I know at least one of you morons is planning on not voting tomorrow. You think that it doesn't matter if Harry Reid is majority leader or Mitch McConnell -- they're practically the same guy, right?
Of course, this means you're stupid. The fact that Obamacare passed by a single vote is lost on you. And that the only reason it passed was because Harry Reid suspended the rules of the Senate so that the Republicans (then, like now, still in the minority) planned to filibuster. And that when Republicans objected, Harry Reid looked into it and found himself not-guilty of violating Senate rules.
All of this is lost on you.
I'm not saying that Republican control of the Senate is going to fix our nations problems. I don't believe it will lead to a balanced budget. I don't believe it will end the immigration mess. None of those things is going to happen.
But I do know that Republican control of the Senate will mean less power for the empirically worst President in 100 years. Less power for Obama is better than the same amount of power for Obama.
I don't know why I'm trying to convince morons to vote with argumentation. I guess I just wanted you to know why I would be voting, if I was voting.
Instead, if you've already made up your mind not to vote, can you do me a favor and vote in my stead? Think of it as voting in proxy for Rusty. A favor that I'd owe back someday. I dunno, maybe I'd let Howie throw up more pics of boobies again. People who don't vote like boobies, right?
Think of it as bringing balance back to the force. You vote, I don't, the universe is in harmony once more.
Also, that chick you have the hots for? Yeah, she's your sister. Or not. Apparently my memory also confuses other people's past with random movie characters.
So, vote for Rusty! And by for here I mean in the place of rather than in the other sense of the word, ie, casting a ballot to get me elected.
October 23, 2014
Sandcrawler PSA: Save the Trees
Many liberals are adamant there is no threat of voter fraud that justifies efforts to improve the integrity of elections. “There is no real concrete evidence of voter fraud,” tweeted Donna Brazile, former acting chair of the Democratic National Committee, this week. “It’s a big ass lie.”
James O’Keefe, the guerilla filmmaker who brought down the ACORN voter-registration fraudsters in 2010 and forced the resignation of NPR executives, politely disagrees. Today, he is releasing some new undercover footage that raises disturbing questions about ballot integrity in Colorado, the site of fiercely contested races for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, and the governorship. When he raised the issue of filling out some of the unused ballots that are mailed to every household in the state this month, he was told by Meredith Hicks, the director of Work for Progress, a liberal group funded by Democratic Super PACS.: “That is not even like lying or something, if someone throws out a ballot, like if you want to fill it out you should do it.” She then brazenly offered O’Keefe, disguised as a middle-aged college instructor, a job with her group.
May 29, 2013
Former NV Powerbroker Convicted Of Making Illegal Campaign Contributions To Sen. Dingy Harry
Harry is as pure as the driven snow and had no idea this happened
RENO, Nev. - A former Nevada powerbroker was convicted on Wednesday of making illegal campaign contributions to U.S. Sen. Harry Reid.Sure Dingy Harry.
A federal jury reached the verdict in the case against real estate developer and once powerful lobbyist Harvey Whittemore.
The jury returned unanimous guilty verdicts on charges of making excessive campaign contributions, making contributions in the name of another, and causing a false statement to be made to the Federal Election Commission.
Whittemore faces up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine on each count.[...]
Reid has not been accused of any wrongdoing and did not testify during the trial. He has said he was unaware of any potential problems with the money he received..
May 08, 2013
Deliver 'A Crushing Blow' To Obama's Agenda
From Gateway Pundit:
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent out this email today asking for financial support for radical leftist Ed Markey in Massachusetts. The Democrats are worried about losing John Kerry’s seat to former Navy SEAL Republican Gabriel Gomez.
Democrats believe losing Kerry’s seat "would be a crushing blow to President Obama and could potentially devastate his agenda."
I support anyone who can deliver a "crushing blow" to Obama's radical liberal agenda.
Donate to Gabriel Gomez HERE.
May 07, 2013
Election Fraud: Democrat Listed Twice On Ballot
And the left accuses the GOP of voter fraud?
Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, the Democratic nominee for the South Carolina First Congressional District special election, is listed twice on today's ballot. Colbert-Busch is also the nominee of the Working Families party. [...]
All votes for Colbert-Busch "go to Colbert-Busch," regardless of whether the voter selects the Democratic Busch or the Working Families Busch. But tonight, when the votes are counted, Busch's votes will be separated by party, even if it's the cumulative vote count that matters. (Source)
So, Colbert-Busch will benefit from two party listings as the votes will be cumulative.
The media is so busy negatively reporting her opponent's domestic background, they've completely distracted voters from Colbert-Busch's criminal past, not to mention the above fraud.
March 07, 2013
Remember The Democratic Poll Worker Who Boasted About Voting Six Times For President Obama?
Melowese Richardson, a Democratic poll worker, proudly admits she not only voted twice for herself, but voted for family members who had also already voted! She voted as many as six times.
To date, she has not been charged, though the election board claims to be investigating. But why the delay? Richardson brags about voting multiple times. She was a poll worker who should have known better.
So, how is that case different than that of 86-year-old Margaret Schneider, an elderly Parkinson's patient who forgot she mailed an absentee ballot a month earlier? And not even in the Presidential election, but during a state primary?
Schneider, 86, has been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease and dementia is one of her symptoms. [...]
Schneider doesn’t deny the allegation. She realizes now, after talking with St. Peter police detective Travis Sandland, that she did vote twice. She voted once with an absentee ballot on July 13 and again at her polling place Aug. 14.
"It had been awhile and I didn’t even remember," Schneider said. "I was shocked to death because I thought my absentee ballot was for the president."
The difference is, Schneider has been charged with a felony.
March 06, 2013
GOP's McKinley for IL-02 Begins Campaign Marching Tour Through Chicago's South Side
For what they say is a “sure-thing” race for the Democrats, the Machine sure is expending a lot of firepower to attack Republican Paul McKinley in the IL-02 special election coming up on April 9.Very interesting.
What are they afraid of?
After largely ignoring the Republicans during the primary, reporters like Chicago Tribune “watchdog” Bill Ruthhart are climbing over themselves to find a reason to mention that McKinley is an ex-offender.
January 25, 2013
Hillary Clinton Kicks Off Her 2016 Presidential Campaign
More from American Digest
(Hat Tip: IHateTheMedia)
January 21, 2013
Inauguration Funnies: TPM: 'Virginia GOP Pulls Dirty Trick On Inauguration Day'..
They worked, how dare they![PJTatler]
All eyes should have been on The Second Coming
Even worse? Twitter has been having sporadic outages and that makes it harder for Soros lackeys to get the word out!
November 08, 2012
Brave New World Day II
Hi, I'm Bronco Bamma your friendly neighborhood President. I told you I'd turn things around. Nothing is working.
There, do you feel better now?
November 06, 2012
A Note About Exit Polls & Why They Will Be Wrong
Just a quick reminder from Ace as I look at Drudge's hilarious headline:
In 2004, Kerry was picking out new curtains for the Oval Office because the exit polls showed him destroying George Bush.....So, take that into consideration as the polls leak.
The exit polls had a massive Democratic skew for several reasons. The people conducting the polls were young college students, for example. Older voters avoided them (figuring they would look down on their vote) and they, in turn, avoided older voters (because older voters are square, man!).
Also, the polling companies claim to have self corrected after the 2004 fiasco. They do so by trying to force the numbers to make them fit the prediction model.
In other words, the exit polls will most likely have the same Democratic bias that the pre-election polls had.
Think of it this way. In 2004 the polls were skewed toward John Kerry because the polling firms hire college students to do the surveys, and those college students selected people for surveying that they could relate to: people who looked like them, Democrats.
I talked about this in 2004 because as a political science professor I was contacted by a polling firm to help them recruit students to do exit surveys. In 1998, as a poli-sci student, I was also asked by one of my professors to do the same thing.
In 2004 the Democratic bias was because the so-called "randomness" (which should, if it was truly random, weed out bias) of the survey was actually skewed by those implementing the survey.
In 2008 the polling firms self-corrected by taking surveys filled out by exit voters, and then weighting them according to the model of the expected vote. In other words, the pollsters intentionally manipulated the real exit data in order to conform to the expected data.
This worked in 2008 because the expectation that Obama would win (the predictive model) conformed to what actually happened.
But in 2012 you'd have to be nuts if you think that, say, a D+5 predictive model would actually conform to the numbers on the ground. And since I'm guessing that these models are very similar to the way the pre-election polls predicted "likely voters", then that's exactly what you'll have.
If the exit polls show, say, an R+1 advantage, then the number crunchers will forcibly weight the sample so that it conforms to within (I'm assuming here because this is how I would do it if I were making the model) two standard deviations of the D+5 model.
And since the only other way to do the exit polling would be to go back to random sampling, then you are back to the same problem we had in 2004: self selection.
In other words, given the bias we've seen in the pre-election polls there is no reason to think that the exit polls won't have the same bias.
Don't panic if you see early exit polls showing an Obama lead. If the research design of those polls is anything like the research design of the pre-election polls, then they are absolutely meaningless.
UPDATE: Exactly as I expected, the Ohio exit poll has a D+7 skew. Which means it will be utterly worthless. So, whether they are using the old "random" method or the new and approved "weighted method", they're probably going to get it wrong.
Giant Obama Mural Greets Voters in Philly
Update: Dems Defy Judge, Don't Cover Mural All The Way
Update: Obama Poster in FLA Polling Station
UPDATE: Republicans Being Told Already Voted
UPDATE Via Moshe: Ben Avram: A judge ordered Obama's mural to be covered up.
UPDATE II: How do Dems respond to the court order?
And yet they have the chutzpa to accuse Republicans of trying to steal this election! And by "stealing", of course, they mean trying to follow the law and make sure the person voting is actually the person registered.
Update III: Are we calling this a trend yet anyone? Obama poster photographed hanging in FLA polling station
Also, I edited this post for continuity.
This one is from SH, but I share the sentiment: Oh and, F**k you greyrooster Delete Clicks R Me
UPDATE V by Rusty: Election judge illegally wears Obama hat.
But it gets better:
"Woman in front of me also given an extra ballot."H/T:Instapundit
Remember, this is the guy who's supposed to be enforcing the law.
UPDATE VI: This is one precinct, three cases of voter fraud where voters turned up to vote only to be told they'd already cast a ballot, all within 3 1/2 hours of the polls opening.
And the Dems actually think voter suppression is the real problem??
Creepy, reminds me of of this
One polling site in Philadelphia apparently had a mural of President Obama emblazoned on the wall directly behind the voting machines. The mural, at a local school being used as a polling site, contained the words "change!" and "hope," along with a quote from the president.
Republicans were drawing attention to the image Tuesday morning, with one Mitt Romney spokesman tweeting: "Voters in Philly's Ward 35 are being forced to cast their ballots next to this."
"It is an absolute disgrace," said Shannon Royer, deputy secretary for external affairs and elections in Pennsylvania. "Election materials and electioneering inside the polling place are prohibited by state law. This can be interpreted as trying to influence voters inside the polling place. I am told discussions are going on now about covering the mural."
Pennsylvania election law states "no person within a polling place may electioneer or solicit votes for any political party, political body, or candidate, nor may any unauthorized written or printed materials be posted within the polling place."[More...]
Ohio Dems Place Fake TEA Party Flyers In Mailboxes Urging Voters To Defeat N*Expletive* In White House
New Black Panthers Return To Philly; GOP Inspectors Tossed
Update: Inspectors Reinstated
The Philadelphia GOP is reporting that court appointed Minority (read GOP) Inspectors are being thrown out of polling locations in several Wards.Wait, the UN election observers are not in Philly?
Reports on the ground indicate the Black Panthers are at polling locations.
Never mind, the democrats have this area covered.
Update: Via @electionjournal:
Update III: Court reinstates GOP Minority Inspectors. Report from PA GOP below fold:
For immediate release. Contact: Valerie CarasUpdate IV: SEIU cry babies: GOP poll watchers are racists or something.
Obama Supporters Muscle Out Election Inspectors But GOP Wins Initial Challenges to Seat Election Workers
PA GOP Will Continue to Fight for a Fair Election
HARRISBURG, PA—Republican Party of Pennsylvania Chairman Rob Gleason released the following statement regarding the first court order issued by the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas to seat Republican Minority Inspectors in Philadelphia Polling places:
“This was a shameless attempt from the Obama campaign to suppress our legally appointed Republican poll watchers in Philadelphia and they got caught,” Chairman Rob Gleason said.
“We’ve seen these shenanigans before and it’s clear that Democratic operatives and the Obama campaign are desperate; trying to shield Republican Minority Inspectors who are employees of the City of Philadelphia today from monitoring election activities. It certainly raises the question, what are Democrats doing in the polls that they are working so hard to shield folks from monitoring this election?”
So far this morning, Democratic operatives prohibited 75 legally credentialed Republican election workers from accessing polling places in heavily Democratic areas in Philadelphia. Incidents ranged from judges of elections refusing to seat Republican Minority Inspectors and Clerks, to reports of Democratic election operatives announcing that “No Republicans will be allowed in the polling place.”
As a result, the Republican Party of Pennsylvania petitioned the Court to issue formal orders to force Democratic judges of elections to seat Republican minority inspectors and clerks. The Court said that they will issue around 6-12 Orders with approximately 6 – 10 names per Order.
November 05, 2012
AUDIO: David Axelrod in 1995: Cut Funding to Big Bird; NRA Responsible for OKC
PJ Media Exclusive:
Just this morning, PJ Media received the audio from a 1995 David Axelrod appearance on Beyond the Beltway, a Chicago-based talk show hosted by Bruce DuMont.Too bad this didn't come out a lot sooner.
Axelrod's appearances are listed here in the show's archives. I requested all of the tapes, and received them a short time ago. Here are the relevant clips:
From 5/21/1995, regarding the 1995 Oklahoma City terrorist bombing which murdered 168 people — the worst act of terror on American soil prior to September 11, 2001. Axelrod blames "rhetoric" from the NRA for contributing to the bombing and the barricading of Pennsylvania Avenue. Also from the 5/21/1995 appearance — Axelrod blames Republican presidents for running up the deficit, claiming that the president is primarily responsible for overspending. Also, he claims that the Democratic Congress — Democrats were in control of the House for 40 years prior to 1995 — tried to stop the Republican overspending. Also from the 5/21/1995 appearance — Axelrod thinks it is a good idea to cut federal funding of PBS. Last month, Axelrod led a campaign against Mitt Romney's assertion that this funding should be cut
MP3 versions of program available here: http://pjmedia.com/blog/exclusive-audio-david-axelrod-1995/