November 25, 2013

Preparing for a Nuclear Iran

I no longer think the question is if Iran goes nuclear, it's now only when. The idea that we can trust but verify in Iran is about as believable as when Clinton made pretty much the same deal with North Korea. You remember how well that worked out?

Best case scenario: Iran and Pakistan nuke each other.

Worst case scenario: Iran and Israel nuke each other.

And as often as not, the future probably will be neither extreme. Iran's pursuit of a nuke is probably more linked to their fear of regime change then it is to their fear of a Jewish state. That is, a nuclear bomb is a way for them to prolong their own power when clearly no one -- including their own people -- really thinks Ayatollah Khomeini's particular brand of Islamism has worked out very well.

We need to remember that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan already has nukes and so far has remained in check by the prospects of Indian nukes, despite a good chunk of its own citizens believing the end is nigh so why not nuke a few billion infidels into oblivion. So, I don't see Iran nuking Israel just for spite or out of a dream of an apocalyptic oblivion. People in power generally want to stay in power, despite eschatological fantasies of hidden imams coming to save the day. Jim Jones and David Koresh are the exception, not the rule.

Since Obama's tenure in office is assured until early 2017 I don't see anything we can do to stop this deal from happening. It's a fait accompli.

The biggest irritation here is that just when Obama and the EU's policy of economic sanctions began to work, they folded. As we speak Iran is on the verge of complete economic collapse. The collapse could have actually led to regime change, but even if it didn't do that immediately it would have at least led to chaos. Maybe even the kind of chaos that Syria is going through. A weakened Iran.

But now, holding a straight flush, Obama .... folds?

Yes, elections have consequences. I fear we are about to see just how far reaching those consequences might be.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 11:46 AM | Comments |