November 07, 2012
Defeat? No Not Defeat.
I've been listening to a lot of the chatter since President Obama won reelection.
A lot of chatter about demographics and why Republicans lost and can't win. Suggestions that we change, sell out our principals for the Presidency. Questions about Obama's policy and record and how could that happen?
Well the truth of the matter is its personality. People vote for whom they like, at least a great number of them. So that personality that we first saw make that great speech at the Democratic convention is more of a factor than we like to think. I don't want to discount entirely what the pundits are saying. Those are things you need to compete but in the end people vote for whom they like.
Gore did not lose to Bush over policy, its people disliked Gore so much. Reagan could win and then afterward do whatever he wanted campaign promise or not and it didn't matter. People liked him much to the chagrin of the political classes. Folks just like Bill Clinton more than George Herbert Walker Bush and they don't dislike Bush. Its not you its me.
Romney ran as good a campaign as he possibly could, much better than John McCain. Dead to rights he should win but...... the problem is not the policy its Obama himself.
Now I'll give you that the right does need to tweek some policy. I feel that they have an opening on liberty, defending people's rights from government intrusion and making hay with the more libertarian of those among us. The second is on fiscal policy, do good fiscal policy and mean it. Don't just talk good fiscal policy, do good fiscal policy.
Out of all the numbers that bode well for Obama the truth is that even with the demographic switch, the more brown America, more voters identify themselves as "conservative." A fact which is reflected in the House of Representatives. The same little brown folks who returned Obama to office also returned the same congress as a check on Obama. This is a country of checks and balances and the people want that check on Obama just as they would any person in that office.
So what you're telling us is that Republicans need their own Obamamessiah?
Yes! As you recall Democrats certainly have not cornered the market on policy or the direction of the country. When the next Republican president appears on the scene, you'll know him before the policy debates, before all the commercials. People will vote for him just because they like him despite demographics ,class, color, even policy.
These things are much more fated than we like to admit. Even as good as the Romney campaign was it could not overcome that initial Romney vs. Obama popularity contest.
So this election is much less a win for the left than one might think. The conservatives in congress were sent there to fix the fiscal issues. They had best do what they were sent there to do.
If we sell out our principals we'll never win because no one likes a sell out or a fake. we'll lose those who do vote on policy and thought. We just have to make sure we apply them in the context of the electorate, we can't rubber stamp shallow ideologues who offer no solutions and repeat one dimensional establishment litmus test issues and stay competitive.
So stick to your guns, its more important than ever that we do.
All that said here's what I see coming. We will go off the fiscal cliff. Next year we'll see much higher taxes and less growth. Not to mention reductions in public spending. Over the course of the next few years we'll see steadily increasing energy costs similar to the last four years. Similar decreases in the value of the dollar and little if any upward pressure on wages. Not to mention the continuation of Obama's foreign policy and an increasingly dangerous situation in regards to the influence of radical Salafism.
The squeeze is on America, better buckle up because its going to be a very bumpy ride.
And also Colorado, I'm moving to Colorado.
Update: Well that was fast.