April 15, 2010

Gunshots Heard at Polish Plane Crash?

I'm only posting this because: a) it's being shown on the Islamist forums as evidence that the mujahideen brought the plane down; b) it's being shown on a number of other websites as evidence that the Russians brought the plane down.

I don't believe either version. If those really are gunshots, then I think the far more likely explanation is that Russian police [милиция] are firing shots into the air to warn off people.

I've lived in Russia and if the police out in the boondocks are as unprofessional as the police in Moscow, then it not only wouldn't it surprise me if they were shooting in the air but it would surprise me if they weren't.

I speak a little Russian, but I can't vouch for the translation as most of the voices are very feint. But if the translation is right, then I think the scenario I've laid out is much more likely than either of the two conspiracy theories.

For instance, before the alleged shots are heard someone is saying off in the distance, "Get out of here you bastards."

Then, "Get out of here."

Then there's yelling which goes untranslated by the video maker, but I'm pretty sure the voice is saying, "давай" which is what you say when you are trying to get someone to hurry up, kind of like, "come on!"

Then, "we're all going back". And, "Sir, get out of here. We're all leaving."

I'm not 100% sure what the guy holding the camera says next, but it's not "Give me a gun" as some suggest. It's been 15 years since I really had a long conversation in Russian. Maybe someone wants to translate that?

It's only at this point that I hear what could be a gunshot and a voice saying, "Everyone, move back! Let's go."

So, if those really are gunshots then I think that the most likely explanation is that it's the local yokel police trying to warn off lookie loos (perhaps even the military, given that this was a state function with all the added security -- and the Russian military is even less professional than the police).

Another explanation, though, is those aren't gunshots at all, but rather secondary minor explosions from the crash. Notice the fire burning? Ever throw a can of soda pop in a fire? Every former Boy Scout knows what I'm talking about.

Here's the video. You be the judge.

Thanks to Stephen.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 09:39 AM | Comments |