February 04, 2010

Shakeup in the Texas Governor's Race?

The past couple months have seen some crazy elections, all of which ended up with front-runners coming in last, and outsiders coming in at or near the top.

Are we seeing a similar pattern emerge in the Texas GOP Primary for governor? Maybe so.

New York's Three-Way Shuffle

In the recent three-way race in New York-23, roughly a month out from election day, the front-runner enjoyed a SUBSTANTIAL lead over both the mainstream challenger and the outsider, but particularly over the outsider. With almost no time left to campaign, the outsider was barely breaking in to the double digits, and wasn't considered a serious contender in the race.

As the race moved into the final days, it became apparent that the Republicans supporting the front-runner were VERY open to other options.

Less than a month later, the Republican 'front runner'--Dede Scozzafava--had dropped out of the race, and the outsider--Doug Hoffman--came within 2 POINTS of winning the race.

New York 23 was, of course, only ONE of the recent unconventional races...

The Massachusetts Miracle

In the Masschusetts race, just a few weeks out from election day, the challenger was polling 30 POINTS behind the front-runner, who was on track for an easy victory.

As in New York, a large contingent of the front runner's supporters were open to other options.

At the end of the day, despite Martha Coakley's early 30-point lead, she went down to defeat at the hands of Scott Brown.

In both of these cases, candidates with a core group of dedicated, energized supporters overcame the early advantages enjoyed by the better-known and better-funded 'establishment' candidates.

Grassroots / Tea Party favorite Doug Hoffman moved from 16% in late September to 46% on November 3rd--a move of 30 POINTS in a little over a month.

Grassroots / Tea Party favorite Scott Brown moved from 27% in early November to 52% on January 19th--a move of 25 POINTS in a little over two months

Which brings us to the Texas Governors' Race...

A Texas Two-Step?

As of the last poll in the Texas Governors' race, Governor Rick Perry came away with 48% of the vote.

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is in second place, with 29%.

Debra Medina is in third, with 16%.

Now, sixteen percent is not normally the kind of number that shakes the foundations of the halls of power--but this is anything but a normal campaign season.

The conventional wisdom has generally held that Debra Medina's presence in the primary race would have effect of forcing a runoff between Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison--but that assumes Senator Hutchison comes in second on election day. Given Medina's recent rise in the polls, that's no longer a valid assumption.

Debra Medina MAY be showing the same sort of momentum in the polls that Doug Hoffman and Scott Brown enjoyed in the New York 23 and Massachusetts Senate races. If she is, Senator Hutchison's place in a primary runoff is not at all secure.

A comparison to the New York and Massachusetts races is illustrative. The following is a chart of public opinion polls over time in the New York 23 Special Election:

In this race, there was a slow and steady rise in the polls, followed by a rapid rise once Hoffman moved to within striking distance of Scozzafava.

Along similar lines, here's a chart of public opinion polls in the recent Massachusetts Senate race:

Again, note the slow and steady rise in Brown's early polls, followed by a rapid rise once he moved to within striking distance of Coakley.

Although it may be early to call it, we MAY be seeing the same pattern emerge in the Texas Republican Primary for governor:

So, is Debra Medina on track to catch Rick Perry before election day (March 2)?

Probably not--but she MAY be on track to overtake Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and make it into the runoff. She pulled 4 points from Hutchison between the last two polls. Another 7 points over the next month is not at all out of the question. At this point, a PERRY vs. MEDINA runoff is, at the very least, a VERY REAL possibility.

What might happen in such a runoff is anybody's guess.