December 20, 2009
US Airstrikes in Yemen: Continuation of a Failed Policy
Yesterday, a variety of media sources disclosed US involvement in raids against al Qaeda in Yemen, in particular air strikes in Abyan and on the outskirts of the capital, Sana'a. The prime target, Qasim al Reimi, escaped the Sana'a strike and scores of civilians were killed in the Abyan bombing. President Obama called Yemeni President Saleh after the raids to congratulate him for taking action against the terror group.
When a counter-terror air strike kills more civilians than an average suicide bombing, can it be called a success? Discounting the dead kids for just a minute and using even the coldest pragmatic standards, the US air strikes in Yemen did much more harm than good to the US on multiple levels and will negatively impact security for a decade.
Despite the broad pro-democracy sentiment in Yemen, and increasingly vocal popular frustration with Yemen's brutal and incompetent dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the only allies the US has in Yemen now are the genocidal Saleh and his corrupt cronies. The groups previously demonstrating for civil rights and a free press, for transparency in governance and an end to the state's violence against its citizens, are now all protesting the air strikes- because they missed and hit a village of shepards. The northern rebels and southern independence movement, who both phrase their grievances in terms of democracy, may enter the spheres of another big power for moral support. The US, never wildly popular, is now toxic to even the most liberal segments of Yemeni society.
Then there's the "possibility" that the US was duped, and al Reimi was tipped off. Lately there's been more mumbling by anonymous western officials recognizing that the Yemeni security, military and administration are somewhat compromised by al Qaeda. Its an understatement but at least, I thought hopefully, a beginning of the dawn of consciousness. How could US planners not factor in and guard against a potential double cross when dealing with Saleh's regime? In the light of Yemen's track record, it was predictable (30-40%) that al Reimi would escape.
The bottom line is Saleh won and al Qaeda won. The US lost and the misery laden Yemeni citizens lost as well. The overall US plan, that failed for years, seems to be to pressure, bribe and cajole Saleh to cooperate in western efforts against al Qaeda. All other considerations, people, promises and standards are under the bus. The high ground is lost despite the variety of innovative options that existed. The US threw its lot in with a war criminal. Expectations are so low for Saleh's regime that any temporary pretense of commitment is rewarded and welcomed. There's very little thinking outside the box. The trajectory is predictable and disastrous.
As always, more at Armies of Liberation.
