November 12, 2009

I Predict A Coordinated War Against Israel in Early January (UPDATE)

UPDATED: Original post below. Abbas, on the 5th anniversary of Ofumble's Nobel Prize Award in arms peep's demise, has announced the cancellation of elections in January. Gut reaction is this takes the incentive away from Hamas to disrupt anticipated elections in January, but the flip side is that Fatah has given up on peace talks, thanks to Ofumbles gaffe on settlements, so they may not stay out of a spontaneous conflict. Hell, they might help start it. *End update.

Lots of things happening here.

1. There is the unwritten understanding of resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue by year end. This will not happen so the Ofumble Administration will be forced to take some half-ass measure if they are to have any smidgen of credibility, unless something crazy happens in the region, such as a major conflict.
2. There have been endless reports of weapons build-ups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip for Hezbollah and Hamas. Debka and Israel Matzav have more.
3. Very disturbing but less to do with the imminent conflict is Turkey's actions over the last year, and especially the last few months. I have touched on this a few times recently here, here, and here. They are now openly facilitation the transfer of munitions from Iran to Syria, which simplifies and speeds up the process of arming Hezbollah and Hamas.
4. Hamas has ordered Palestinians not to take part in elections scheduled for January 24th.
5. Lingering froth from the Al-Aqsa babysitting....and you know how long the pants wetters hold a grudge.....they are still pissed about cartoons.
6. Miscellaneous - Israeli/Palestinian peace efforts falter, Hamas/Fatah reconciliation falters, Goldstone report, Ex-Egyptian Chief of Staff saying more Israeli-Arab wars are definite, etc....

Iran needs to cause a "look at the shiny thing" moment near the the new year and Hezbollah and Hamas are now armed to the teeth and ready to comply with their master's orders. Plus, Hamas would like nothing more that to get a chance to take a whack at Israel for Cast Lead and disrupt the scheduled Palestinian elections. All this adds up to a significant incident in the early part of January that engulfs the region in a sh!t storm, IMO. This includes minimally two fronts and possibly a third minor front out of the West Bank. Or maybe I'm wrong, I hope I am...we'll see in about 2 months.

If it goes down, anybody want to take a guess at Ofumble's reaction? I'm guessing something similar to a deer in the headlights, at best, provide aid to Syria, at worst.