October 07, 2009

Gates. Gets. It: The Battle for Narrative in Afghanistan

In between the frantic remodeling and slowly moving in to the new house, I was able to catch a few minutes of Defense Secretary Gates on some panel on CNN. I didn't see the whole thing, but what I saw was very impressive.

Gates gets it.

The war in Afghanistan is not just about denying al Qaeda physical space from which they could launch attacks against US interests. The much more important battle is to deny al Qaeda the intellectual space necessary for them to propagate a narrative in which the mujahideen are once again victorious over a superpower.

And that is exactly what Gates argued and what Amanpour just couldn't get.

That if the US cuts its losses in Afghanistan that al Qaeda will claim victory. A victory they will then use to propagate their world view, raise money, recruit, and eventually be in a stronger position.

It's what they did after the defeat of the Soviets. And when we left Somalia after the Black Hawk down incident.

And it's why Zawahiri and bin Laden are constantly referring to Vietnam. They don't believe we have the stomach to see this thing through to the end. And, judging by some of the hand wringers on the Left and Right, they may be right.

In the short term, losing Afghanistan wouldn't be devastating. A critic in the comments section of one of my posts yesterday correctly noted that training for 9/11 did not occur within the territorial boundaries of Afghanistan. The gist of it, I think, being that having the Taliban back in power wouldn't be the end of the world.

But it misses the larger point that the war we are engaged in is largely ideological in nature. When bin Laden says that human nature is such that people tend to back the strongest horse, he means just that.

The narrative put forth by al Qaeda is that their victory is inevitable. Past victories of Muslims vs. infidels are cited as such. Remember, to those sharing al Qaeda's world view this is not a war pitting al Qaeda against the West. It is a war of Muslims against the West.

This is empirically false given that the vast majority of the victims of Islamist aggression are other Muslims, but part of the narrative is that Muslims allied with the West are either apostates or pawns of larger forces and therefore are not Muslim.

To win the war against al Qaeda we must win the war over who's narrative will be passed on to the next generation. In 50 years will the Muslim world be speaking of the second defeat of a world super power by the warriors of Allah? Or will they see the defeat of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan as part of a righteous effort to root out extremism and terrorist networks?

That is key. And that is why I think Gates gets it.