September 25, 2009
Yet Another bin Laden Video to Europe (UPDATE: al Qaeda Plot in the Works?][UPDATE II: Multiple Warnings][Upd III: Taliban Threaten Germany]
Another audio of Osama bin Laden was released today. I have it, but have not yet watched it. I'll just link an MSM report, with the promise of further analysis later if it's merited.
I'll just note that bin Laden's message appears to be directed at European countries. The timing, though, probably means that it was geared at affecting the outcome of this weekend's elections in Germany. The ruling center-right coalition is expected to win.
The audio is probably meant to scare Germans into rethinking who they vote for because the present government supports a continued presence in Afghanistan. As evidence that this is bin Laden's intent, note the reference to the Madrid bombing. And the fact that it was only four minutes long means it was probably thrown together last minute. Also, the message was sent out translated into German.
BBC:
Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden has purportedly urged European nations to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, in a new tape posted on the internet...Possibly more to come.....t had German and English subtitles. Germans go to the polls in federal elections on Sunday. ...
"If you had seen [the mass killings] of your American allies and their helpers in northern Afghanistan ... then you would understand the bloody events in Madrid and London," Bin Laden said, referring to attacks in the two cities in 2004 and 2005 respectively.
UPDATE: Cruising around some of the good CT blogs, I noticed two important tidbits concerning something nagging me in the back of my mind.
First, from Thomas Hegghammer:
Personally I think al-Qaida would not issue all these messages if something really big was in the making in the next few days, precisely because media offensives put intelligence services on high alert.Remember, over the past few days we've seen several jihadi videos directed at Germany. And now one from el jeffe himself? It indicates something real may be in the works.
And the arrest today of an eHadi responsible for distributing the video may be significant. Most eHadis are worth watching. Most of them are unlikely actually participate in acts of terror (cowards and social misfits really -- at least, at first) but they may be connected to others who's proximate potential for terrorism is greater.
In this case, we know the person picked up on Germany must be connected online to al Qaeda's online distribution network. Who else does he know?
Second, this from Peter Neumann:
Others, such as my friend Guido Steinberg at the Berlin based think tank SWP, are not so sure. Steinberg believes that Al Qaeda wouldn’t make such a fuss if there wasn’t any activity on the ground. In fact, I have it from good sources that the German authorities are concerned about three groups of potential plotters right now.This all adds up to a potential higher security risk during the elections. And this isn't just me. If there is such a thing as a consensus view built on the buzz generated by the internet forums, every one thinks something is in the works.
Perhaps that vacation to Bavaria for Oktoberfest should be postponed until after this weekend?
Update II: Joining the US in warning of possible terror attacks in Grrmany are the Brits.
Update III: Just heard through the grapevine that a new Taliban video also threatens German targets. 5 videos in one week targetting Germany. Something is up.
