March 05, 2009

Things Looking Up in Afghanistan?

I dunno, but Max Boot seems to think so. He also thinks that an Iraq-like surge is just the formula needed for success in Afghanistan:

I have just returned from Afghanistan shocked by the depth of the disconnect between reality and reporting.

The coalition officers that I spoke with expressed confidence that with the U.S. reinforcements now flowing into the country, they will be able to score victories against insurgents who have been given free reign in some areas because of a paucity of NATO resources. But even before the 17,000 additional U.S. troops arrive, the situation is hardly critical. Kabul and the other major cities are safe, and even large swathes of the countryside are hardly infested by insurgents.

Like I said, I dunno. I remember hearing the same kind of reports from Iraq pre-surge. Certainly what I'm hearing from people I trust --people like Michael Yon -- is that the situation on the ground is not really improving.

And from other sources I trust -- like Bill Roggio and Steve Schippert -- that even with a surge-like change in troop levels and tactics that unless the Pakistanis do something drastic that it just won't matter what we do in Afghanistan.

Hopefully we are just all pessimists fated to be wrong by success. Boot's article is worth reading, especially his fisking of an IHT editorial by Celestine Bohlen.

Let me make one other important point that Boot ---and every one else-- understandably, gets wrong:

Actually the Red Army -- excuse me, the Russian army -- has more or less managed to solve the Chechen insurgency by force
Actually, the Russians have not solved the Chechen problem. Not seeing it in the news does not make the problem solved. What we have in Chechnya is heavily censored media. Out of sight, out of mind.

But check out the Kavkaz Center and you'll see the al Qaeda linked insurgency is very much alive and well. In fact, I predict that we will begin to see more and more Westerners -- including Americans -- joining the Caucuses based insurgency.

Thanks to Abe.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 12:42 PM | |