October 30, 2008
Graph : Why This Race is Not Over
As I noted yesterday, mish-mashing polls together is very problematic from a mathematical point-of-view. It's not 100% clear what the results of any poll means by itself. When you take two polls and mash them together, it's even less clear what you've got.
The graph above is a graph of the results of polls from FOUR separate and independent organizations, taken at different points in time, with each organization using a given methodology multiple times.
Each of these four polls shows McCain enjoying a late rally of support, and Barack Obama suffering a drop.
These are not the only polls out there, of course. There are other polls out there that may show different behavior. The Rasmussen numbers are not included above, but they follow a similar pattern.
BOTTOM LINE : Don't believe the hype, folks. This is still a race.
