August 08, 2008

Russia Invades Georgia: When 2 Natural Allies go to War

Russia invaded Georgia today in response to Georgian moves to retake a breakaway province. As some of you may recall I lived in Russia. Again, I'm typing this via iphone so no links and only a couple of thoughts.

What should our response be? I don't know. Both countries are vital to our national interests. Contrary to popular belief (I noticed Michelle Malkin say something to this effect) the conflict in Chechnya is not over. People only think it's over because the Russians keep a very tight lid on the media, like complete silence. If you don't believe me just Google "Kavkaz center".

So, we need both countries to suppress the trans-Caucasian Islamist movement. Especially now that Turkey has decided that it will not go after elements of this movement within it's borders.

Also, contrary to the media line the Chechen separatist movement is very much allied with al Qaeda.

The same Islamist fighters who terrorize Russia operate in Georgia.

A quick refresher: South Ossetia is in Georgia but North Ossetia is in Russia. Also in North Ossetia--Beslan.

So you see we need both countries to help quash the Islamist uprising in the Caucuses. I know our natural inclination is to root for Georgia but the hard reality is that we need Russia as an ally (if not as a friend) more than we do Georgia. Yes our interests often conflict with those of Russia and rarely with Georgia but that is only because Georgia has few global interests to begin with.

Russia shares a border with a number of "stans" each of which has the potential of becoming the next Afghanistan. If push comes to shove, better Russian blood spilt invading than US blood.

So the situatin is far more complicated than pro-American country (Georgia) vs anti-American country (Russia). The Georgians may be our friends but our tenuous alliance on certain key issues with Russia is more important to our long term national interests.

For this reason don't look for us to help Georgia out. We won't. I know this is unsettling and I know there would be a certain amount of satisfaction in certain circles should Russia be given a bloody nose, but our national interest should come before pride--and even friendship.