April 28, 2008
How Will We Know When We've Won in Iraq?
It's an interesting piece by Fredrick Kagan. Here are Kagan's five points:
1) A stable state.
2) A representative state.
3) A state that controls its territory.
4) A state oriented toward the West.
5) An ally in the struggle against militant Islamism.
The major problem is that point 2 may conflict with points 5 or 6. For instance, what if Iraqis decided to elect a government which was hostile t the West? It's unlikely, but if Sunni Arabs and Kurds were ever to unite around some agreed upon Islamist agenda, they also could take over--through representative democracy.
This second war in Iraq--the first war was against the Hussein regime -- can be won, but does not depend in any way, shape, or form on Iraq becoming democratic. Winning must only be defined in terms our national interests. Those interests coincide only with three of Kagan's points, but which can be succinctly wrapped up into two:
1) A stable state that controls its own territory. After our allies in Afghanistan defeated the mighty Soviet Army, we abandoned them. As a result, years of civil war ensued in which the Taliban controlled some but not all of Afghanistan's territory. 9/11 is a testament to what can happen when conservative followers of Islam are given a quasi-state in which they allow their fellow travelers in the international Salafi Islamist movement to operate.
2) An ally in the struggle against militant Islamism. Our main enemy has been the Salafi movement, but the existence of thousands of Sadrists in Iraq is a testament to America's other global Islamist enemy: Khomeinism. They cannot be eliminated altogether, but must be neutralized.
We should not err in mixing up instrumental goals with ultimate goals. Democracy for Iraq is a goal only as long as that goal helps push Iraq towards a state which rejects Islamism and is able to keep out the agents of Salafi jihad and limit Iranian influence.
Thankfully, recent events in Iraq suggest that its elected government is doing just that. But governments come and go. The long term prospects for democracy in Iraq are not so clear.
