April 14, 2008

The two wars in Iraq and why Osama bin Laden was right

“We have seen in the last decade the decline of the American government and the weakness of the American soldier who is ready to wage Cold Wars and unprepared to fight long wars. This was proven in Beirut when the Marines fled after two explosions. It also proves they can run in less than 24 hours, and this was also repeated in Somalia.” - Osama Bin Laden, May 1998

We must not only win in Iraq but crush our enemies there. The Islamist world view is that America lacks the will to fight. Those fighting us in Iraq and Afghanistan believe they can win. And when they drive us out, they believe that there ranks will only grow. Osama bin Laden's theory of public support must always be taken into account:

When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.
Ed Morrisey points us to this editorial from Michael Honeycutt of Vets for Freedom. Keep bin Laden in mind as you read it:
They were willing to help us, but they are not a stupid people. They know that if they commit to the American side and the Americans abandon them as we did in 1991, it means death for them and their families. They know this, and it is real. It is not an abstract idea for them.

Most Iraqis don’t support Al-Qaida and the militias, but when our commitment to stay in Iraq and finish the job is in doubt — as it was when Sen. Harry Reid went on TV and said, “this war is lost” — Iraqis are going to hedge their bets. They may not support the militias, but when they are betting their lives, most of them are not going to commit to America unless they are assured that America is committed to them.

50 years from now I'm not sure that we won't speak of two Iraq wars. The first war against Saddam Hussein* and the second war against Islamist insurgents of both Sunni and Shia stripes.

I get the argument for why we should not have fought the first war. I get the blame game of those wanting to place responsibility of the second war on an unprepared administration.

What I don't get are those who argue that since the first war did not improve U.S. security that the second war should not be fought. That calling it quits against Islamist insurgents is somehow in our national interests. It's not. Retreat from Iraq is a clear signal to Islamists that Osama bin Laden's view of a weak America unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary for winning the long struggle is correct. And that will only lead to more attacks.

*Just to clarify, by the First Iraq War I mean the 2003 conflict which saw the successful invasion of Iraq and overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime. The liberation of Kuwait is generally referred to as 'The Gulf War' in the West or "The Gulf War II' in the Middle East [the Iran-Iraq war is usually called 'The Gulf War' there].

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 08:34 AM | |