January 03, 2008
Ragnar's Iowa Predictions
Everyone else is doing it, so here are mine:
1. Mitt Romney wins Iowa with about 30%. Given the amount of time Romney has had a ground team in Iowa and the amount of money he's spent, he will have an advocate speaking for him in just about every precinct in the state tonight.
2. The Huckster takes second with about 20-25%. Huckster simply does not have nearly the organization that Romney has, and that will show up in the final numbers. Huckster's numbers are inflated by the sheer volume of media attention he's been receiving lately. His numbers aren't a total illusion, but they're inflated. Words of support on the phone do not necessarily translate to butts in seats at the caucuses.
3. Fred! takes third with 15-20%. Fred and Maverick may be showing similar levels of support among the general populace, but Fred has an active get-out-the-vote ground game in Iowa, and Maverick doesn't. As with Romney and the Huckster, the difference will show up in the final numbers. Poll numbers are showing a late rally by Fred.
4. Maverick takes fourth with ~10%.
5. Ron Paul will beat expectations. He may beat John McCain.
By Ragnar Danneskjold, R.I.N.O. Hunter at January 3, 2008 05:54 PM | | l digg this
