November 01, 2007

Al Qaeda Taking Over Taliban?

Well, it's an interesting theory. It's seems like a logical argument that al Qaeda is funneling jihadis to Afghanistan rather than Iraq now that Iraq is a lost cause for the Salafi dreams of an "Islamic State of Iraq", but I'm not sure about second part of the theory: that al Qaeda is trying to take over the Taliban, and that will lead to the same kinds of schisms that arose in Iraq and which have led to al Qaeda's defeat there.

Ray's speculation rests on a video released yesterday by al Qaeda's as Sahab media of Mullah Dadullah Mansoor. Here's the banner distributed by as Sahab on the forums.

The speech by Mullah Dadullah Mansoor was released in Arabic and Pashtun, but not English, so I haven't been able to check the whole thing out.

Mansoor is a Taliban commander, so why is al Qaeda distributing Taliban propaganda?

Here's what Ray thinks. Ray Robison:

These fighters were meant for Iraq but the core al Qaeda leadership has realized that the war there is lost. They are no longer sending the new recruits in large numbers. In the current environment, only small teams can go unmolested in the Iraqi lands al Qaeda used to control. Since al Qaeda can no longer send large numbers of fighters to Iraq and since their Taliban support base is slipping away at home they have one option left to them.

Al Qaeda is attempting a hostile takeover of the Taliban.

And that signals the end of al Qaeda in Pakistan/Afghanistan just as it did in Iraq when they tried to take over from local chieftains.

The split that came in Iraq seemed to follow al Qaeda's harsh treatment of subjected populations. While Sunnis were willing to fight alongside of al Qaeda as long as they perceived the US as the greater threat, as soon as al Qaeda took over an area it would implement a type of Sharia law that makes the Saudis look liberal. Think Taliban style government. Not many people liked that. Not even Sunnis.

So, I don't see the same dichotomy in Afghanistan. Either al Qaeda implements Taliban style government or the Taliban do it, but there's really no difference to the average Afghan.

There may be other types of schisms arising that do have an analogy with Iraq. For instance the alienation of al Qaeda from The Islamic Army in Iraq and Ansar al Sunna. These two groups share al Qaeda's Salafist vision of the implementation of sharia law and the Caliphate restoration, but each group thinks they should be the ones running it. So, an internal power struggle within the Taliban makes it easier for us, just as the fact that the Salafi jihadis in Iraq no longer cooperating with each other does.

But the real major split which the US was able to turn to our major advantage with the advent of the Patraeus doctrine came when the Sunni nationalists, such as those in the 1920s Revolution Brigade, decided that al Qaeda and other Salafists were the enemy. This was a tribal uprising of Sunnis against Salafis, not Salafis against Salafis.

I don't quite see the same thing happening in Afghanistan, but I hope I'm wrong and Ray is right.