December 14, 2006

Cato : The Libertarian Vote

I've been of the opinion that libertarian disillusionment with the GOP had a lot to do with Republican losses in 2006, but I haven't had the hard data to back up that opinion.

David Boaz and David Kirby of Cato have broken down the numbers. Their conclusion:

For those on the trail of the elusive swing voter, it may be most notable that the libertarian vote shifted sharply in 2004. Libertarians preferred George W. Bush over Al Gore by 72 to 20 percent, but Bush's margin dropped in 2004 to 59-38 over John Kerry. Congressional voting showed a similar swing from 2002 to 2004. Libertarians apparently became disillusioned with Republican overspending, social intolerance, civil liberties infringements, and the floundering war in Iraq. If that trend continues into 2006 and 2008, Republicans will lose elections they would otherwise win.
I agree with theis general conclusions above, but I doubt concern of "civil liberties infringements" carries anywhere near as much weight as rampant overspending coupled with the perception that the Republican leadership is at the beck and call of Jerry Falwell. I could be wrong.

So far, I see approximately zero evidence that the Republican leadership "gets it" as regards the disillusionment of the libertarians. If my perception is correct, we may be looking at another round of Democrat wins in 2008--which could give us four years of President Hillary. Good times ... not.

By Ragnar Danneskjold, Typical Bitter Gun-Clinger at 01:16 AM | |