October 23, 2006

Science! Republicans Keep Senate, Lose House

Several studies in The American Political Science Associations' PS: Political Science and Politics journal predict that the Republican Party will retain its majority in the U.S. Senate, but that the Democrats will take over the House of Representative.

It's science. You can't argue with it.

Remember, it took Ph.D.'s with advanced computer modeling to make these predictions. I need a punchline for a joke that goes something like, "What do you call 4 Ph.D.'s who use complex forecasting models to say exactly what that moron Chris Matthews has been saying for months?"

I'm thinking, "Tenured" ought to do the trick.

Klarner and Buchanan predict:

* Democrats will receive 224 seats in the House--6 more than needed for control and a gain of 22 seats overall

* There is a 94.9% probability that Democrats will win the House

* Even when very pro-Republican assumptions were made about who would win primaries, the model predicts Democrats have a 69.2% chance of winning the House and will likely emerge with 220 seats

* Democrats will have 48 Senate seats after the election--a net gain of 3 seats, but 3 short of a majority even when Bernie Sanders and Jim Jeffords (I-VT) are counted as Democrats

* There is a 4.7% chance the Democrats will win a majority in the Senate

* The most competitive Senate races in 2006 are those in Pennsylvania (51% chance of a Democratic win), Minnesota (57%), Ohio (39%), Nevada (36%), and Rhode Island (61%)

Abramowitz, using a different model:

* A Democratic gain of 29 seats in the House of Representatives

* A Democratic gain of 2.5 seats in the Senate, limited by a relatively small GOP exposure of 15 seats in this election cycle

* An advantage of 10 points in the generic vote produces a swing of about 2 Senate seats with all else equal


By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 01:35 PM | Comments |