August 02, 2006

Victory? No, Not Victory. Begun WW III Has.

I’ve been disturbed lately by the lack of backbone displayed by the west. We have war on many fronts and no one has actually declared war on anyone. Did the US declare war against the Taliban? Nope, that was an authorization, but not war. Iraq, no same deal. Somalia, no that’s an unstable situation. Israel and Lebanon, no declaration there either.

The only ones with enough gall to actually declare war are terrorist organizations who have declared war worldwide. This is often dismissed as the ranting of Islamic terrorists, but they mean what they say. The terror supporting states such as Iran have not said it either. What? You expect them to tip us off? Why? They are depending on our bad case of denial to give them a good head start.

So to spare further silly denial and get the ball rolling I’ll help us all out.

WW III will begin on Thursday August 3rd at 8:00 pm EDT 7:00 pm central. Check your local listings. The time between 9/11 2001 and then shall be known as, “The events leading up to WW III.” Even though we all know it’s the same damn thing.

So far the level of violence and death has not reached that of earlier conflicts. Given the number of fronts, hot spots, regions and nations involved, I feel that it is entirely accurate to call it "world war". WWI and WWII were not called “world wars” at the time when they started. I feel it is likely things will continue down the current path. In WWII the US dragged it’s feet and entered the war late. This worked out well as the US entered fresh against Germany. Not so this time. Who will step up?

Some question how Hezbollah could call this a victory after all the destruction. It’s simple really. They wish to die as we wish to live. These “civilians” and children are all considered Martyrs and will be celebrated as such. The put on of grief is for show. Both to rally support for Hezbollah and also to tug at the heart strings of the west and sucker them into saving the terrorist’s behind. But all is not lost. We pretty much got our asses handed to us at Pearl Harbor. That was one of many Japanese victories during WWII. They did not win the war. It is the same now. Victory depends not on the actions of the enemy but on our reaction.

I’ve been looking forward to see what strategies are in play here and what conditions may be if Hezbollah is successful. Hezbollah lost the elections in Lebanon and the Cedar Revolution won. Hezbollah was unable to attend to their agenda because the sensible people of Lebanon kept them in check. Sensible people knew there was no credible threat to Lebanon from Israel. Hezbollah’s solution was to create one. Hezbollah does not intend to win militarily their strategy is to be saved at the last minute and then take political control of Lebanon. Remember democracy is a two edged sword. The Nazi party was democratically elected.

Once Hezbollah (Iran’s proxy) is in control of Lebanon then everything changes. It is entirely consistent with Iran’s stated goal of removing the state of Israel. One might think Israel is over reacting but once you realize the strategic significance of Lebanon it becomes clear. Iran intends to help pass control of Lebanon to the Islamist Hezbollah and create a new Islamist state. This will provide the basing for Iran’s next move. It is unacceptable to leave Hezbollah intact and poised to take Lebanon. You could call Lebanon the keystone state of the Middle East.

Civilians have a role in war. This is a fact. Either by fate or by support of the ideals their nation is fighting for. Many Germans and Japanese, who may not have supported their nation’s role in WWII, died in the conflict. So the underlying assumption these days that civilians are not part of a war machine are false. They are the source of all power used to make war. For this reason civilians also require a government that has the nads to declare war. Otherwise the population lives in ambiguity and the nation suffers for lack of support.

Of course it’s terrible to see things such as civilian deaths during war. A cease fire now in Lebanon would be humane to people living there now. But it would be exceedingly cruel to let those who have already perished to have died in vain. More cruel would be the suffering that future generations will have to endure because their ancestors failed them. If we fail to settle this they shall suffer and their blood shall be on our hands.

While we should work for peace we must also prepare for the possibility that the GWOT will become a full scale conflict. That peace may not be achievable in the short term. Many more sacrifices may be required to pay for a better future. We may have to draft soldiers; have to devote economic resources to the war machine; citizens may have to endure shortages and hardship. We may have to do all this for the next generation. The greatest generation did this for us. Do we have it in us to do the same?

So I hope I’m wrong as much as everyone else. But to wallow in that hope whilst people are dying, to become emotionally overwhelmed by our squeamishness, that is a dereliction of our duty to the future. And a crying shame too since just two generations before they did it for us.

Apparently Newt agrees with me.

Original Draft of this post here.