July 30, 2006

Stratfor on the Israeli Cease Fire

Stratfor holds forth on the partial cease fire announced by Israel:

The Israeli air force has been operating intensely for almost three weeks and clearly can use a 48-hour stand down. This decision, if confirmed opens the door to a cease-fire in place that would leave Hezbollah with a draw -- a victory from Hezbollah's point of view. At this point, Hezbollah has a critical decision to make that will not be known until dawn local time, as that is when Hezbollah has launched its first salvoes at Israel in the past.
Israel's partial cease fire puts Hizb'Allah in an interesting position. If Hizb'Allah continues its rocket attacks despite the partial cease fire, Kofi Annan and others who continue to call for a full cease fire would do so from a position of even less credibility (assuming that's even possible). Then again, if Hizb'Allah ceases the rocket attacks, it seems that it risks appearing weak at a time when it's been gaining credibility via a show of strength.

By Ragnar Danneskjold, Typical Bitter Gun-Clinger at 11:47 PM | Comments |