October 04, 2005

Today's Scandals Mean McCain in '08

All things being equal, John McCain willl be the Republican nominee in 2008. Why? It's about how the media is framing the issues.

For instance, the Tom DeLay scandal could easily be framed in a number of ways. A conservative might frame the issue as one of big government run amok--DeLay as a sympton rather than a cause. A Democratic partisan might frame the issue as one of Republican misdeeds--DeLay as cause rather than affect.

But how is the MSM generally framing the DeLay scandal? Corruption fed by campaign finance abuses.

The way you frame an issue inevetably leads to a solution. If the problem is big government, then the solution is making government smaller. This is the way I or other small government types might like to frame the DeLay issue. No one is buying this.

If the problem is Republicans in office, then the solution is putting Democrats in office. This is the way the Democrats are trying to frame the DeLay corruption charges. The media are generally too savvy to fall for this one.

Instead, the media seems to trend toward the campaign finance angle. And if the problem is campaign finance abuse then the solution is, and you see where this is going, John McCain.

So, it may be important to follow who is making trips to Iowa already (is John Kerry dellusional, or what?), but if the current media climate prevails for the next couple of years, it will be McCain in '08.

Unless of course the next big trend in political analysis will be to blame the growing deficit on fat people. In that case, Gove. Mike Huckabee is a shoe in.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 01:28 PM | |