November 02, 2004

New Prediction: Electoral Vote Tie!!

Ok, call it a political-scientist's wet dream, but I just calls it likes I sees it. The Electoral Vote will be a tie!! Something that has not happened since the election of 1800, and in that election the tie was a mistake that resulted from a Constitutional flaw. This could get I the only one out there who now thinks this has gone from a possible scenario to a likely scenario?


UPDATE: In case of a tie, the decision goes to the House of Representatives. The interesting catch is that each state gets a single vote in choosing the President in this case. The Republicans have a 12 seat majority in the House, but that would not automatically translate into a victory for Bush. Why? Again, each state gets one vote. Here's a question for my readers, which I don't know the answer to: How many state delegations to the US House of Representatives have more Republicans than Democrats? The Constitution does not clarify how the state delegations would decide which person to vote for, but presumably each delegation would meet by themselves and vote amongst themselves.

The Senate would then get to choose the VP, and since the Republicans have an advantage, you have a Cheney victory.

Steve over at Poli-blog makes some good observations in his last Toast-o-Meter. Looking around at the predictions, I'd say I'm the only one that really thinks the 269-269 scenario is likely. This roundup of roundups has no one else predicting it this way.

Megapundit will be upudating their Unofficial Poll Results all day (via Discarded Lies)

Shout out to Bill for dropping the Sith Lord Cheney reference. Vote or Lord Vader will crush your windpipe!! And from Bill's post a link to one of Dean's which shows the Dark-Side must be powerful in the military.

Note to Dean: I get uncomfortable with all this talk of the 'back door' on the same day I do a Wonkette post. Anyway, even with so many military votes going Bush, I still think Florida goes Kerry and we end up with the 269-269 scenario.

Note from Demosophist: One of the W. Virginia electors has said that he won't vote for Bush under any conditions. He's a maverick. Have you figured that into your predicition?

No, hadn't thought of that. But I also hadn't factored in the fact that one of Maine's electors might go Bush (Maine splits their electors by House District). So, it's a wash!

Ok, Pixy Misa, the god of the munuvians, drops this in the comments: There are 30 Republican-majority state delegations in the House, 16 Democrat, and 4 deadlocked. So an Electoral College tie is a Republican win.

Ouch, are the early numbers really saying "Please Rusty, don't hurt em?" I mean, is this looking like vindication or what?

Linked with today's Jimmy beltway fest.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 02:54 PM | Comments |