November 01, 2004

My Electoral Vote Prediction: it's the weather, stupid!

Reaching into the depths of my vast well of political science factoids I pulled out this little semi-factoid: weather can change the outcome of a Presidential election. Who said it? I dunno, but it seems like something some political scientist must have theorized at some time and then found enough information about to get his findings published in the APSR (that's the American Political Science Review the flagship journal of the profession--mostly used for paperweight). Anyway it's sounds good and I'm too lazy to look it up!!

So, let's pretend for a moment that this very poli-sci-ish sounding theory is correct and try to game the Electoral College. Assume a couple of things. First, that a large voter turnout would mean a Kerry victory in close states. Second, assume that the poorer the weather the better it will be for Bush. This is based on a third assumption which is that Kerry voters are more likely than Bush supporters to have to hoof it, use public transportation, or drive cars which risk floating away in sudden rainstorms.

Ok, so using the above let's look at the states where the pundits have it too close to call. Too close to call is defined by Slate's 'iffy' states.

Florida=Sunny and 86 in Daytona, partly cloudy and 86 in Miami. The AARP goes out in droves, public transportation running smoothely, and convicted felons have no problem making it to the polls.

Jawa call Fla=Kerry.

Ohio=Rain all day in Cleveland, but a balmy 61--unseasonally warm. The same pretty much all over the state. Farmers and SUV loving Bushies will have no problem getting out the vote.

Jawa call Oh=Bush.

Wisconsin=Cloudy and in the mid to upper 40's in Milwaukee. Just chilly enough to suppress the Medicaid/welfare vote, but not so much that it stops the UW-Madison vote. That's a wash.

Jawa call WI=Kerry.

Minnessotta=Sunny and in the mid-40's in Minneapolis/St. Paul, low 40's in Duluth. Average temps all around.

Jawa call MN=Kerry.

Pennsylvania=Rain/heavy rains and in the mid-50's in Western and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia is partly cloudy with a high of 62. Fired lawyer-HIV-Springstein vote en masse on the liberal coast.

Jawa call PA=Kerry.

New Hampshire=Chance of rain increases throughout the day and a temperature in the mid-40's. But this is New Hampshire, which means that the richer you are the more likely you are to vote for John Kerry--because, naturally, how could you hold your head up high in your Boston office having voted for that dolt Bush?!? The quick-run-to-get-some-duty-free-Moulson's vote suppressed by old snow-tires and high price of gas.

Jawa call NH=Kerry.

Iowa=Partly cloudy and afternoon temps in the upper-40s. Practically summer in Iowa. Hawkeye kegger party weather-- togas, bonfire, and lots of College Republicans terrorizing the Women's Studies department.

Jawa call Iowa=Bush.

New Mexico=Albuquerque is unseasonally cold with temps in the mid-40's and some snow in the hours before the polls open. The Taos liberals are all still comfortably in the Bahamas--not enough snow to make the migration to the slopes yet--so no advantage there. But the Santa Fe art crowd will wake up to temps in the upper 20s and icy roads. The weather will be just cold enough to suppress the recently trimmed pony-tail laden.

Jawa call NM=Bush.

And as the song goes, and the rest........

evotepredict2.jpg

The moral of the story is this: pray for bad weather!!!

Can't one of you, like, do a dance or something and rummage up a storm? How about another hurricane in Florida? Some nice hailstorms in Wisconsin?

*I actually think Bush will win, but hey, this was much funner than grading some stupid midterms!!!

*Double PS-As another good poli-scientist, Dr. Choas, noted to me, under this scenario Bush would only need to pull WI or MN to get the tie. Tie goes to the House. The House is Republican. Bush wins.

By Rusty Shackleford, Ph.D. at 04:09 PM | Comments |