September 14, 2004

Thinking the anathema: Is it time to leave Iraq?

Is it time to leave Iraq? Yes. Our mission was regime change and making sure no WMD got into the hands of terrorists. Mission accomplished. Leave the nation-building to the Iraqis. If they are worthy of democracy and liberal consensual government, they will pay for it with their own blood. If they are not worthy of it, which I increasingly suspect, they will submit to authoritarianism and be glad to move on with their own business. What do we have to prove there now? We came, we saw, we kicked their asses.

I understand the long-term strategic vision of a democratic Iraq in the middle of a sea of hate and oppression. I think it's a wonderful notion to think of a kind of reverse domino effect. I want to believe it. I am just not sure that Muslim societies are capable of the kind of tolerance necessary for a democracy to work.

Let's take a look at Muslim 'democracies'.

-Pakistan. No longer democratic. Fine with me. Look at what their democracy produced: nuclear weapons and transfers of nuclear plans to rogue nations (such as North Korea and Libya), support for the Taliban, support for jihad against India, madrassas that produced jihadis sent around the world, etc. It seems to me that our national interests are better served by the present non-democratic Pakistan.

-Indonesia. Quasi-democratic. Perhaps the closest thing to a democracy you can expect out of the Muslim world, but not truly democratic. The former President of Indonesia has a long record of anti-Semitism and wacky conspiracy theories. Indonesia has long had authoritarianism with only the semblance of democratic institutions. Could it evolve into a democracy? Maybe, but see Pakistan as an example of an Islamic democracy. Do we really want that?

-Turkey. Turkey is not truly democratic, but is a quasi-democracy. Turkey was forced into becoming a secular state by a dictator, Ataturk. There is forced seperation of church and state in Turkey. If Turks were given the choice, would they change their constitution and adopt sharia? Quite possibly. Lucky for us the Turkish army periodically intervenes in elections. Turkey is an ally--and not the most faithful one at that--precisely because it's elites are Western oriented secularists.

-Iran. Iran claims to be a democracy, but I don't think any of my readers are buying that. Could they be? Well, many educated Persians in the diaspora certainly think that Iran was headed toward democracy before the Shah was ousted. But then again, think of how that path developed. The Shah forced Iran into a forward looking progressive state. Athoritarianism produced a segment of society that was secular.

So, tell me where I'm wrong. Is our present policy wise? Can we really transform Iraq into a semi-stable quasi-democratic state? Increasingly I fear that we cannot. Increasingly I fear that right-leaning bloggers have entered a state of denial--that we must be for the present Iraq policy (in some modified form or another) because the other side is against it. Increasingly I fear that I have been one of those bloggers. I have been cheerleading a policy which may not work. I have been cheerleading a pipe-dream: Arab democracy.

Do I believe with 100% certainty that we should cut and run? No. Call it 40% of me says to leave the mess to the Iraqis. 40% says to stay the course. 20% says I'm full of crap and I don't know either way.

If the Arab world wants democracy so bad let us see them build it themselves. Liberty may be ordained to man as a right given by God, but a right given is not the same as a right appreciated. We won our liberty through the blood and sweat of our forefathers. But it was OUR BLOOD and OUR SWEAT. Consensual government is a precious pearl. Never cast your pearl before swine.

Tell me that I'm wrong. I hope I am.

UPDATE: Some good comments. Check out my response.

UPDATE: Check out the responses by those who sent sandcrawler tracks below (the fatwas). Some good thoughts and rejoinders. It also earns you a place on the blogroll.